Processing Fluency Influences Future Probability Judgments
(A2026-132554)

AUTHORS

Svenja Winkler, Goethe University Frankfurt; JAN LANDWEHR, Goethe University Frankfurt

ABSTRACT

The current research systematically examines whether the experience of processing fluency influences judgments of future probability and whether the observed results patterns align with those observed for truth judgments. Moreover, since psychological distance to an event is known to influence both perceived probability and subjective fluency, the current research also examines psychological distance as a moderator of the link between processing fluency and truth/future probability judgments. Across six pre-registered experimental studies (total N = 3,600), we show that the subjective experience of processing fluency consistently mediates the effect of repeated prior exposure on judgments of truth and future probability and that different types of psychological distance (i.e., likelihood, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity) moderate how the fluency experience unfolds its effect.