Bet Fair: Using Fixture Rhythm to Channel Suspense into Rational Betting
(A2026-133082)

AUTHORS

Runze Lin, University of Bristol; Jiashu Liao, University of Glasgow; Jingyi Ma, University of Bristol, UK

ABSTRACT

This research examines how the rhythm of fixtures influences betting behaviour, match-fixing risk, and competitive suspense in sports betting on the English Premier League (EPL) and La Liga. Using 746 match-level observations of weekly aggregated Betfair betting volumes from the 2022-2023 seasons, we model the interactions between fixture congestion, interruptions in the schedule, competitive intensity, and consumer behaviour. Crucially, we find that the in- teraction between fixture interruptions and high-suspense matches acts as a cognitive filter, dampening impulsive betting while amplifying rational participation. Our results show that star matches significantly increase betting volume (by 134%, p = 0.001) and that LCI is as- sociated with higher levels of rational participation (a 25.9% increase per unit, p = 0.001). The dissimilarity between the LCI algorithms with respect to ris negative (r =−0.386), re- vealing a two-dimensional structure of match quality. Together, these findings introduce a new concept of a behavioral moderator, fixture rhythm, and a rationality amplifier in the form of premium suspense, offering a marketing analytics perspective that reconciles fan engagement with the rationality goals of responsible gambling.