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EMAC 2020 Annual Conference

Forecasting Long-Term Effect of Marketing Actions on the Basis of the Analysis of Incremental Retention of Gross Merchandise Volume

Published: May 27, 2020


Tatiana Prokhorova, National Research University Higher School of Economics


e-commerce; marketing efficiency; retention


This paper considers the methodology for forecasting the long-term effect of marketing campaigns in e-commerce service. The research purpose of the study is to develop an approach for predicting the long-term effect of marketing campaigns with the following properties: the approach allows to assess the effect of marketing campaigns, including the return on investment in marketing based on data collected during the first 4 weeks after the end of the campaign; the approach is based on the analysis of actual data on the volume of purchases in groups of buyers participating in the campaign, and their dynamics, both during the campaign, before and after it; the approach has accuracy, which allows us to compare campaigns with statistical significance.