Collateral Impact of Geo-Political Armed Conflict in Emerging Market Retailing: Coexistence of Advantage and Disadvantage
(A2024-119572)

AUTHORS

Rafid Ur Rahman, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds; Martin Heinberg, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds; Sourindra Banerjee, University of Leeds; Constantine Katsikeas, Leeds University Business School

ABSTRACT

The recent outbreak of Geo-Political Armed Conflict (GAC) is adding layers of complexity for retailers and brands. While many brands and retailers are in a disadvantageous position due to GAC, for others this situation offers a substantial opportunity to increase sales and market share. Considering the recent impact of Russo-Ukraine GAC in retailing, this study focuses on the untouched avenue of the collateral impact on retailers in countries far away from and not involved in GAC. We have performed panel analysis on sales data of 749 brands from 0.5 million consumers over 24 months (8 quarters). Our findings provide guidelines for brands and retailers in an emerging country to minimize the collateral damage and weather the storm of GAC impact on sales. This paper demonstrates how different Brand Ownership (big umbrella brands, foreign brands, private labels) and Brand Positioning (sustainability or a distinctive functional positioning) help to deal with the criticality of GAC effect.