The Time-Varying Effects of Racial Representations in TV Commercials on Brand Health Metrics
(A2025-126366)

AUTHORS

Li Jing Wang, Imperial College Business School; Gokhan Yildirim, Imperial College London; Gijs Overgoor, Southern Methodist University; Yakov Bart, Northeastern University; Koen Pauwels, Northeastern University

ABSTRACT

This study examines the time-varying effects of Black actor representation in TV advertising on brand health metrics using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model. Analysing data from around 400 brands in 10 industries spanning 104 weeks around George Floyd’s death, we investigate how Black actor share of ads (BASOA) impacts awareness and purchase intention of a brand. While increased BASOA generates positive awareness, it does not significantly affect purchase intention overall. BASOA effects tend to peak around race-related events, and impulse response analysis demonstrates positive transient and persistent effects on awareness, but negative immediate and positive longer-term effects on purchase intention. Our findings provide novel insights into the dynamic relationship between racial representation and brand performance, highlighting the importance of considering temporal context and brand heterogeneity when implementing these initiatives.