Guardiola, Klopp or Mourinho? Evidence on the Value of Managerial Abilities for Brand Performance from the English Premier League Using an Extended Two-Sided Matching Model of the Market for Talent
(A2025-126467)

AUTHORS

Liang Zhao, University of Cambridge, Judge Business School; Ahmed Khwaja, University of Cambridge Judge Business School

ABSTRACT

We study the market for talent, focusing on the role of managerial abilities and their alignment with organizational capabilities in determining success with data from the English Premier League on manager-club matches. Employing a revealed preference semi-parametric two-sided matching maximum score estimator framework (MMSE), we address econometric challenges related to self-selection endogeneity and competitive equilibrium in talent markets. We further extend the framework to allow the estimation of manager-specific attributes, providing richer interpretations and directly linking match value to brand performance that conventional MMSE cannot. We leverage a Large Language Model to quantify managerial abilities using extensive publicly available textual data, avoiding limitations of proxies or subjective measures. Results reveal that interpersonal skills yield diminishing returns with squad size, while tactical skills yield increasing marginal returns with player quality. Surprisingly, managerial misconduct impacts lower-tier clubs more severely than higher-prestige clubs. This framework offers broad applicability to marketing research on matching markets.